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Monday, August 10, 2009

the military encirclement of Russia.



= pro Western, American troop bases and new members of NATO.

= Iran and Russia.


A whole year has pasted since Georgian forces indiscriminately attacked Russian citizens in South Ossetia leading to a large rapid Russian response which saw men and tanks enter the field in a fairly conventional war, after a short enough exchange Russian forces pulled back after giving the Georgians a sound beating, however this was met by a lot of hypocrisy by the Americans at the time, and later saw an increase of US military presence in several ex USSR countries, many of which are joining NATO an organization that is spreading its influence into the Caucasus.

Imagine a scenario where Georgia (under the same leadership) as a NATO state did exactly what it did last August, that could have resulted in a much larger conflict that could have sparked World War III!

Now I know things aren't as bad as they were in the Cold War but that one spark could have ignited one hell of a fire!

The west shouldn't be spreading their influence militarily in that part of the world anyway!

Iran for example is completely surrounded by American forces on both sides of its border, if a war sparks between Iran and the US it will be very bloody, remember Iran is no broken backed country and a preemptive attack and invasion on a country Russia considers to be an ally would have major consequences, best case scenario would be they would simply close off ties with Europe and the United States and instead open up a better front with China.



Even though nuclear talks are underway Russia (rightfully so) would be more trigger happy on the nuclear button since former allies have joined NATO and its neighboring countries are allowing the United States military to set up bases there which shows a gesture of aggression on behalf of the Americans and Europeans.

Last years sneak attack on South Ossetia was directly perpetrated by Georgia, whether or not this attack was allowed or encouraged by the US I don't know but the present Georgian government did arise from a coup in 2004, something the Iranian government claimed to have been a victim of in this summers election protests.

The Russian reaction in that war did show that they are ready and their military is practical, over 4,000 modern T-72 and T-80 tanks in their inventory and several armored vehicles and an air force large enough to defend the sheer size and depth of it's air space.



Western presence in Eastern Europe is acceptable but acting as the aggressors and threatening to launch preemptive wars far from home is just plain wrong, the presence of Western military men and machines in the Caucasus right under Russia's nose is just unacceptable!

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8 Comments:

  • At August 11, 2009 12:03 AM , Blogger Sven Ortmann said...

    The map appears to be faulty, but that's not even important because a much more relevant indicator isn't the presence of U.S. forces, but the development of U.S. security-related relations.

    The relations in Central Asia are likely only temporary. The Russians are in a dilemma: They can prolong the Afghan conflict with some means (that would fix U.S. power and expend their resources) or they can press for a quick conclusion (the U.S. relations in the area would then most likely drop to irrelevance).

    The U.S. influence in Iraq maybe transitory as well. They might even lose their bases in other Gulf states (Qatar, for example) in a few years.

    The development in Eastern Europe inside NATO is quite irrelevant unless Russia intends to become aggressive in the region.

    The development in Eastern Europe/Caucasus region outside of NATO seems to be under control from a Russian point of view. The Americans did not have major successes there; the few 'pro-Western' revolutions in the region turned out failing, weak governments. A NATO enlargement was vetoed by Europeans who showed the limits of U.S. power to the world (diplomatically).

    I wrote about diverging grand strategies a few weeks ago; the American ability to succeed in their classic (and unimaginative) containment strategy is being reduced by differing grand strategies (or lack of interest) of several European powers.

    This difference to the Cold War is one of the many instances in which the Americans should understand how much "their" influence depends on their allies.

     
  • At August 11, 2009 4:28 AM , Anonymous The Sniper said...

    The Russians massed on the border of Southern Oseetia. Massing troops on a border is an act of war. Read your Geneva Convention. The Georgians were completely justified in their military operations. If you need more info, read up on the history of the region.

     
  • At August 11, 2009 3:09 PM , Blogger Sven Ortmann said...

    The Russians didn't "mass" troops, they held an exercise in their own country.

    "Massing troops on a border" is also no act of war.

    Feel free to point out a specific Geneva Convention (there are several ones) and an exact article for your claim.
    I read much of those conventions and don't recall such an article.
    The United Nations Charter is a much more likely candidate, and guess what country violates that Charter (and the North Atlantic Treaty) almost all the time with its aggressiveness!

    The presence of Russian "peacekeepers" (IIRC
    without UN mission) in Georgia is a much more questionable point.

    Nevertheless, Saakashvili didn't go to war with Russia over Russia's actions; he went to war against the SO separatists until the Russians intervened.

     
  • At August 11, 2009 9:29 PM , Anonymous OSSETIA-ALANIA said...

    The fact that Georgia attacked the Ossetians us in this need not doubt they have fought with us 3 times in 91 year in 2004 and 2008, and all the wars they have lost so thanks to Russia, we Ossetians vygralia in 2008, but the rest we have won without Russia: )

    We Ossetians Europe promised to recognize the sovereignty and join in the EEC if North Ossetia-Alania come from Russia:) but the president of North Ossetia, said that he does not want to go out of Russia do not know why.:)And now you can if North and South Ossetia went from the United States and Russia that NATO will come soon in the North Caucasus and then Russia will be destroyed.:)
    Everyone knows that the Caucasus is Russia sore Achilles heel, and if Russia will lose the Caucasus, it will lose it all. :-)
    But the United States has forgotten that Russia can not destroy this monster is a bear to destroy any who wants to conquer the land of Russian :-) They have nothing will not help nor any of that, I think so.:) I very much hope that my Alanian Republic would be free from Russia but I love Russia.:) And that would very much want Russia and the United States friends

     
  • At August 11, 2009 9:54 PM , Anonymous OSSETIAN FOREVER)) said...

    About 7 PM on August 7, 2008 Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said live on TV: "Let's stop the escalation and begin negotiations - direct, multilateral, what else. Let us give peace and dialogue a chance". Saakashvili added that a few hours before he, as the commander of Georgian army, had ordered all units of the Georgian Defense Ministry and police not to open fire

    The statement calmed the citizens of South Ossetian capital, Tskhinval, who were living in anticipation of escalating conflict. The people believed that there were ways out of crisis and that the Georgian leadership would do all everything necessary for a peaceful settlement.



    But within the next few hours tons of hot lead from artillery, howitzers and "Grad" rocket systems were hurled on the peacefully sleeping and defenseless city. Tskhinval plunged into chaos. People died in their beds, on the streets, and in the basements of the houses where they tried to escape the ruthless bombing.



    "The Georgian side has virtually declared war on South Ossetia", - said the commander of the peacekeeping contingent in South Ossetia, Marat Kulahmetov, after the firing commenced.



    The operation conducted by Georgian troops aimed "to establish constitutional order in the Tskhinvali region" and received the code name of "Clear Field". There are no doubts about what should have been a result of these actions. There are no buildings, infrastructure, human beings in the clear field. Following the logic, none of this should stay in the zone where the Georgian army was firing. The carpet bombing of civilian building were labeled "the destruction of a criminal regime" by Georgian Minister Temur Yakobashvili. But he didn’t specify how he suspected the residents of Tskhinval of being criminals.


    http://ossetians.com/eng/news.php?newsid=511&f=36

     
  • At August 11, 2009 10:04 PM , Anonymous I ALAN(ossetian) said...

    TBILISI, 11 August. Georgia has become a country of developing democracy and a key partner of America in the region. As the correspondent of «Rosbalt», of the former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza, who became the owner of the highest Georgian state award for foreigners - the Order of the Golden Fleece.

    According to Bryza at the awards ceremony in Batumi, the first «Georgia United States perceived as a strategic partner - in terms of energy resources and geopolitical location: on the one hand - Russia, on the other - Iran». But «after the« Rose Revolution »Georgia has become a country of developing democracy», and «has become a major partner of America in the region».

    «Do you really have become our brothers and sisters», - has assured the American diplomat. According to him, such an attitude towards Georgia by the United States will never change. «We are friends and compeer», - he said.

    Remember, the President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili at the same ceremony, said that with regard to the United States and Georgia has no element of coercion, bribery or intimidation. «These are based on mutual respect and equality, rather than the dictates of», - he said. «Our relations are based on the fact that Georgia has been good. And all who will work to ensure that Georgia has been good, including when it will be Russia, it would be too close to a strategic partner for us », - said as Georgian President

     
  • At August 12, 2009 1:14 PM , Anonymous I OSSETIAN said...

    Sven! Who do you think the separatists? We Ossetins? Well then davayti imagine that you come home and start to kill your entire family and take your house. Who then will separatists and bandits?

    Ossetia joined Russia in a unified state but at the time of the Soviet Union, our Southern land gave Georgians since the Soviet authorities Beria were Georgians that he has given our lands Georgians! In 1990, the skin has been destroyed by the Soviet Union, we Ossetians came from Georgia because they said that Georgia for Georgians
    and in 91 years they held the genocide of the Ossetians and Abkhaz. And now who is right, we Ossetians and Georgians who say separatists

     
  • At August 12, 2009 8:34 PM , OpenID IrodBad said...

    Oh shit id better figure out how to get out in time. Its hard times in Moscow where i live. And this info doesn't make me feel any better.. :(

     

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