pauliddon blogg

stuff about things

Monday, November 30, 2009

why an end to NATO is a good thing

An interesting proposal was put forward by the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

A future Trans-Atlantic security pact, RT gave an interesting analysis suggesting that this will in turn end NATO once and for all:



If this came through this would mean a new peace of our time breakthrough, one we haven't seen since the fall of the Berlin Wall twenty years ago, however since then Russia and the west haven't exactly had the best chances of being best friends or allies against each other, and the existence of NATO in a post Warsaw Pact world is a sad reminder that the west hasn't taken off it's cold war parachute pants!



From recent times close incidents that could have brought the NATO countries and the Russian Federation close to a war, two notable incidents would be:

* An incident in 1995 where Norwegian scientists in cooperation with NASA launched a two-stage rocket. This caused a Russian nuclear alert since the rocket was launched from an area where Americans subs operated and the missile had the same launch profile as the launch of a Trident SLBM.

Boris Yeltsin had ten minutes to make the decision of whether or not to authorize a nuclear launch, this was a major screw up considering lack of communications and understanding between both parties involved

* There was also the Pristina airfield incident in Kosovo in 1999, where Russian troops occupied the airfield in the wake of the war, NATO-Saceur general Clark ordered British troops to confront them and kick them out. The British commander in charge refused and stated "I am not going to start World War III for you".



The war in South Ossetia in August of 2008 which saw Russia launching an offensive against Georgia cost 2,000 people their lives (mostly Ossetian civilians murdered by the Georgian Army), the background to Georgia's war planning are much more serious considering it was planning to join NATO (Georgia is not near the North Atlantic, neither is Afghanistan but I guess that doesn't matter), it had been supplied with military hardware by 15 countries just before that war!

From NATO countries the Georgian Army received about:

* 300 APC's from the NATO countries
* 100 tanks
* 67 artillery pieces
* 99 mortars
* 150 anti tank systems
* 200 portable anti aircraft units

* The French Air Force had been prepared to deliver four Mirage fighters
* The Americans were to supply 15 Black Hawk helicopters

The Ukraine supplied a further 90 APC's, their extremist leader Yushchenko has been opting to join NATO but has since been vetoed (from more responsible European countries), so has Georgia which is good since NATO isn't aligning itself with fascists!



That being said NATO has gone too far, the arms business does make strange bed partners and the donor countries of these arms can't be blamed for the damage caused, but with extremists in power from former Soviet countries in eastern Europe could lead Russia and Europe into a dangerous hostile situation.

Russia shouldn't be viewed by Europe as a potential threat any more than any European country should be considered a potential threat, the damage caused by the South Ossetian was a failure for the international community and envisioned some horrible hypocrisy on behalf of the west.

The Russian Federation is a country that has had a lot of history in it's short life and was run into the ground after the USSR collapsed, today it matters, not only for military reasons but for it's size and influence in other parts of the world, a Trans-Atlantic security pact stretching from North America, through Europe to the Russian Far East would more than likely be a more positive change* in the long term for the future rather than trying to decide whether or not to let old Soviet republics with bitter extremists align themselves with most of the great military powers of the west, that would certainly be a disaster waiting to happen!

* Russian President Dmitry Medvedev seldom gets credit for promoting real change!

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Sunday, October 11, 2009

who is really threatening



Geographically (once again) Russia looks like it could be a major threat to Europe, looking at it on a map it would appear that the Russian bear would have a likely chance of crushing Europe, however the Soviet Union has long gone and today this couldn't be more further from the truth, NATO has no real reason to exist except to promote American military dominance around the world, political rhetoric calling Russia our friend rings hollow considering that NATO states seem to be closing in on all sides of the Russian border, as if it still contains the communist pandemic that needs to be prevented from spreading!



While NATO members have a bigger population and an all around much bigger military than Russia does Europe is as densely populated as the main concentration of the 142 millions Russians in Russia which are focused mainly in the west of the country.



Luckily the Ukraine and Georgia were prevented from joining NATO, as that would have really technically militarily encircled Russia, this would make Russia hesitant and (rightfully so) directly threatened.



Bottom Line: The actions of NATO and the EU are not within the bounds of realism, and invoke all sorts of fears in Russia. Some of these are justified and some are not. If the western blocs are not acting rationally in the context of history, the logical thing for the Russians to believe is that they are in danger.

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Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Georgia's Frogfoots



The Soviet made Sukhoi Su-25 is an impressive simple and cheap aircraft, it's closest American counterpart is the deadly A-10 Warthog.

The Su-25 however is much smaller and it's 30mm gun on it while impressive is nothing compared to the Avenger gun on the A-10, but still nonetheless will punch a hole in a tank like it was designed to do, it itself like the A-10 is a flying tank, it's cockpit is well armored being able to withstand direct barrages of hits from 20mm cannon fire!

Along with that it can carry a various amount of bombs and rockets, it really is an in your face kind of plane which is perfect for the soldiers it's supporting on the ground, paired with a pilot with a bit of skill the Su-25 is one deadly opponent to fight against.

Georgia for it's size in the Soviet Union produced a hefty amount of Su-25 Frogfoots, yet following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 they were left with virtually none, around 10 were left in the factory and were bought into service with the Georgian Air Force.



Ten years later in collaboration with Israel eight of these Su-25's were upgraded, avionics were upgraded around the original air frame along with a pinpoint weapon delivery system.
This variant of the Soviet beast is known as Su-25KM.

However in August of 2008 these weren't used against Russian tanks and APC's that entered Georgian territory after pushing them back from South Ossetia where they had attacked, it would have been perfect for the Su-25 to have been deployed, however before that they were used in Georgia's preemptive attack on South Ossetia performing bombing runs, Russia have claimed to have downed three Georgian Su-25's while admitting the Georgians had downed one of theirs, however the circumstances behind this are still unclear.

The development of the Su-25KM with Georgian and Israeli cooperation is an interesting scenario especially in regard with having NATO compatibility, this may be seen in the future with old Soviet aircraft left over behind in former Soviet satellite states that join NATO and may be modernized and used against Russia in the future, especially if somewhere like present days Georgia joined!

* Another throwaway article I guess!

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Monday, August 10, 2009

the military encirclement of Russia.



= pro Western, American troop bases and new members of NATO.

= Iran and Russia.


A whole year has pasted since Georgian forces indiscriminately attacked Russian citizens in South Ossetia leading to a large rapid Russian response which saw men and tanks enter the field in a fairly conventional war, after a short enough exchange Russian forces pulled back after giving the Georgians a sound beating, however this was met by a lot of hypocrisy by the Americans at the time, and later saw an increase of US military presence in several ex USSR countries, many of which are joining NATO an organization that is spreading its influence into the Caucasus.

Imagine a scenario where Georgia (under the same leadership) as a NATO state did exactly what it did last August, that could have resulted in a much larger conflict that could have sparked World War III!

Now I know things aren't as bad as they were in the Cold War but that one spark could have ignited one hell of a fire!

The west shouldn't be spreading their influence militarily in that part of the world anyway!

Iran for example is completely surrounded by American forces on both sides of its border, if a war sparks between Iran and the US it will be very bloody, remember Iran is no broken backed country and a preemptive attack and invasion on a country Russia considers to be an ally would have major consequences, best case scenario would be they would simply close off ties with Europe and the United States and instead open up a better front with China.



Even though nuclear talks are underway Russia (rightfully so) would be more trigger happy on the nuclear button since former allies have joined NATO and its neighboring countries are allowing the United States military to set up bases there which shows a gesture of aggression on behalf of the Americans and Europeans.

Last years sneak attack on South Ossetia was directly perpetrated by Georgia, whether or not this attack was allowed or encouraged by the US I don't know but the present Georgian government did arise from a coup in 2004, something the Iranian government claimed to have been a victim of in this summers election protests.

The Russian reaction in that war did show that they are ready and their military is practical, over 4,000 modern T-72 and T-80 tanks in their inventory and several armored vehicles and an air force large enough to defend the sheer size and depth of it's air space.



Western presence in Eastern Europe is acceptable but acting as the aggressors and threatening to launch preemptive wars far from home is just plain wrong, the presence of Western military men and machines in the Caucasus right under Russia's nose is just unacceptable!

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Tuesday, June 2, 2009

why can't Russia be our friend?

Russia, well more the former Soviet Union was never part of the renaissance, reformation or the enlightenment, major parts of history for the west, this caused Russia to become more culturally distant from the west since the 17th century.

Its a country that stretches across eleven time zones, has historically adapted to this vulnerability by acquiring buffer territories to provide even greater strategic depth for their defense. This vulnerability has led to numerous invasions by great powers in the past. Napoleon and Hitler all did their worse to the Russians the latter having slaughtered 20,000,000 Soviets, maybe they had a reason to distrust the petty fascist powers that thrived in western Europe at the time.

And what happened after the Soviets defeated Germany? (America and Britain sped up its defeat) an entire defensive military alliance was created to face down the singular power of Moscow.

Thus NATO was formed in its Cold War terms, but it still exists today and is spreading its influence deep into eastern Europe, (former Soviet satellite states), why is this being allowed to happen.



I mean Russia is now a autocracy that is supposed to be allied with the rest of the world (a multi polar world), yet America remains the sole hyper power militarily in a unipolar world and NATO still exists, it is extending around Russia now in the Caucasus backing up Georgia last August when the Georgians attacked South Ossetia!



The gap of relations between Russia and the EU is closing and to Russia this is evidence of hostile unified purpose.

Russia currently has a stockpile of 14,000 nuclear warheads (the US roughly 8,000), how many of these are operational I don't know but its still quite a lot considering the cold war was supposed to be over since 1991!

What the west needs to do to preserve good relations and make Russia an infinite ally is for NATO to shut down, Russia will never invade Europe unless Europe attacks it first as history has shown, and the west has no place in Central Asia or the Caucasus, cause there is nothing more unoriginal then history repeating itself over and over again!

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Thursday, March 5, 2009

are stealth aircraft proven?



In 1980 during the end of the Cold War the hi-tech f-117 stealth bomber was first revealed to the public, it was supposed to be undetectable to radar and able to penetrate deep behind enemy lines to destroy strategic targets.

It was 1991 it was shown to be top gun in Operation Desert Storm flying raids against Baghdad, not one was lost during the war but the British and French frigates in the gulf could easily detect the "undetectable".

In 1999 during the NATO bombing of Kosovo an F-117 was downed after being detected by an old Soviet radar system, the Russians even got a look compromising the then 25 year old stealth technology, another F-117 was damaged before the end of the war but still made it back to its base.

The F-117 was recently decommissioned a few months ago and also last July a 0.9 billion dollar B-2 crashed in Guam because of water in the sensors skewed the air-pressure readings too high causing it to crash and burn.



The F-22 is supposed to fill the void as an air superiority fighter over aircraft such as the Su-27, and also be a stealth fighter but because of its weight, size, speed and maneuverability it fails at these, already 127 F-22's are in service with the USAF and will soon prove to be another expensive unproven failure.


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