when the real adversary is the people

I have wrote before about the unwinnable war in Afghanistan and how Obama's policy of throwing more "combat" troops at the problem means he is obviously not looking at past mistakes in the exact same kind of conflict, but the truth is all he is doing is securing vital US interests in Afghanistan namely the pipeline from the Caspian Sea, there are no bad guys anymore, the Taliban has virtually no hope of defeating the coalition in a way the rebels in the 1980's defeated and drew back the Soviets and are instead wrecking as much havoc as they can in Pakistan, but not getting very much success in defeating anyone.



What the coalition and NATO forces in Afghanistan are really fighting (when they are fighting) is the people, which is whatmost of the soldiers fighting and ready to give their lives don't realize!

The Taliban are still active (not strong) and opium trade is at an all time high, (horrible pun) the attack on the village of Azizabad last year killed some 91 people including scores of women and children, in the documentary Afghanistan's Dirty War (YouTube link) several civilians state that the coalition force in Afghanistan have killed more civilians than the Soviets did during their war there in the 1980's.

Nobody likes foreign military occupation, nobody likes foreign soldiers, tanks and fighter jets on their land, a total military defeat of an adversary means nothing anymore, with a bit of will the people of a country rise up no matter what fighting for what they believe in on their land, two more examples here would be the War in South Lebanon which lasted from 1982 to 2000 and the First War in Chechnya which lasted from 1994 to 1995.

I will begin with the latter the war in First War in Chechnya which saw a poor Russia on the verge on economic collapse using military intervention to ensure the security of mountainous area of Chechnya, this begun with a heavy air bombing of it's biggest city Grozny which saw 27,000 people killed, the largest bombing of a civilian area since Dresden in the Second World War.

By the time ground forces of the Russian Army tried to seize Grozny it was met with heavy and horrible street fighting in a true dirty war.



Chechen guerrilla fighters (several of which were teenagers) armed with basic "garbage guns" mainly the Borz which was a very low cost sub machine gun made in very large numbers.

In the heavy engagements in Grozny several convoys (including ones with tanks) were taken out usually the first vehicle and the last vehicle damaged by precise fire (usually from high buildings where tank turrets could not angle up to) thus trapping other vehicles in the middle as sitting ducks in the narrow war torn streets of Grozny.



That war ended in 1996 due to virtually no support from the Russian public and even from several military officers and generals who mutinied before and throughout the war, a second war begun in Chechnya in 1999 which is lasting to this day, however Chechnya today is a federal subject of Russia.

The 1982 invasion of Southern Lebanon by the Israeli military saw them having total dominance over that land in their bid to eliminate PLO forces there, what it resulted in was the formation of Hezbollah not long afterwords which eventually ended forcing all Israeli forces out of Lebanon during an 18 year conflict, Hezbollah are considered heroes in Southern Lebanon and help their supporters or members aid after military engagements with Israel and work close with 'the people'.



Which is why the Israeli bombing of Lebanon in 2006 was really an attack directly on the people, justifications for hitting civil places was because the "terrorists" hence Hezbollah were using them as human shields for their rocket bases, which is why attacks with cluster bombs (which could handicap innocent people in the best case scenario) dropped from F-16's killed so many people, but the truth was at best they were indiscriminate attacks against those various collections of Hezbollah members and civilians were really just to scare the people of Lebanon and break their will therefore weakening Hezbollah but also resulting in the deaths of nearly 2,000 people!


I'm sure bombing Beirut Airport halted tourists
who wanted to see that truly beautiful country!

Sounds like general terrorism to me!

Bottom Line: In retrospect it's very hard or nearly impossible to break the will of a proud nation of people or a nation of people with common beliefs or therefore defeat them without simply wiping them out!

where is Russia going?

The Soviet Union completely collapsed economically in 1991, the Russian people had inherited a drunk and more nuclear weapons than anyone else in the world, shortly after the fall a McDonalds was almost instantly opened in Moscow!



Shortly afterwards Yeltsin led the Russians into a horrible war in Chechnya starting in 1995 thousands of Russians were sent fighting in a Vietnam like war where the enemy was everywhere and at the same time nowhere, it looked as if Russia was going to have a horrible future with recession plaguing the people.

Then in 2000 saw the introduction of Vladamir Putin, after Yeltsin died Putin called him a hero stating he helped the Russian people get their freedom, the Russian Federation looked alien from the past Soviet times in the early 21st century, proved by the music videos like the one below (from t.A.T.u) with heavy sexual undertones:



Since the start of the Putin era Russia has a major sphere of influence on its former Soviet satellite states now having gained their independence, several of which despise Russia and several adopting western governments or joining NATO, an organization designed to repel a Soviet invasion of Western Europe during the Cold War which shouldn't exist anymore since Russia should be a friend or ally of the west since it has the same goals and desires a multi polar world between it and the United States so it can help influence smaller nations in their desired way of shaping the world.



However relations were strained in August of 2008 when the Georgians led a bloody attack under the cover of the 8th of August Olympic games against South Ossetia inhabitated mainly by Russian passport holders and begun attacking the civilian populace, this all happened since a a pro western government was put into power in 2004 along with a defence minister who was an Israeli who trained the Georgian soldiers!

And as if that wasn't bad enough Georgia a tiny nation right below Russia's noses has joined NATO.

However Medvedev wants nuke restrictions, Russia has 14,000 nukes, that is more than all of the nukes combined of all of the west, and are probably have their finger more tightly around the trigger considering nations like Georgia and the Ukraine are joining NATO.

So where is Russia going?
The Russia of today and the one that was established in 1991 are quite different, Russia today matters in world affairs, but what does the future of this massive nation hold, nuclear disarmament or confrontation, or after being neglected from the west will the east close off from the west once again dividing the world?

Russia has formed close trade and military alliance with the Peoples Republic of China, will this eventually lead to a unification into the new east?

All this being said whatever happens in Russia's future it will be interesting to watch!

how powerful is Russia?

Russia had a brutal history during the Second World War, with most of its earth scorched and two thirds of its industry completely destroyed, and as if this wasn't bad enough it had to live in fear from the military alliance built up from the west to counter Moscow, it was in late 1991 that the days of the Cold War came to an end, the USSR collapsed after holding together 39,000 nuclear weapons and the massive Red Army, it all came tumbling down, Mikhail Gorbachev who had now offered reform was gone and the first president of the Russian Federation was a drunk.



Russia then ended up bogged down in a long war in Chechnya devoting 70,000 soldiers as well as support equipment and lost 5,000 in the process in the long and painful struggle which saw rebels producing cheap Borz sub machine guns in their dirty war against the Russian forces, the bombing of Grozny at the start of the war continually for three weeks by the Russian Air Force killed 27,000 civilians, mostly ethnic Russians.

Yelstin had made the Russian military look weak and careless and old fashioned, as it was during the 1990's, the once proud navy was reduced to tatters and the Russian air force patrolled only its own borders, to America and the rest of the world Russia didn't seem to matter and wasn't taken half as seriously as it should have been.



However Vladamir Putin an ex KGB man became president of Russia in 2000 at the beginning of the 21st century and begun to bring to the country back onto its feet, a second war started in Chechnya and is still be fought in mere skirmishes to this day!

Putin helped the military build itself up properly and in 2007 the Tu-95 Bear was seen in the skies over the North Pole, the South Pacific and even in British air space, Russia was showing itself to be a dominant power for the first time since the Cold War.



But has it changed?

Well it wasn't half as big since the Soviet times but it hasn't changed very much equipment wise, apart from some air force technology demonstrators.

The war last August in Georgia proves my point, the Russians sent in line after line of tanks against their enemy;



That covered by artillery and fighter jet sorties did give the Georgian military a pounding but their weak air defence did manage to down a Tu-22 supersonic bomber!
The Russian tactics seems to be a large force of men and equipment to sweep through an area covered by missiles, a form of warfare much larger on the ground than British or American warfare in the last 60 years!



Russia still has more nuclear weapons left over from the Cold War than the United States, Britain, France and Israel combined, 14,000 or so mostly in storage, however after tensions arose in early 2007, and again during the 2008 war in Georgia I'm sure Russia has a hefty amount of these attached to their many ICBM's.

Putin's reform may not have indefinitely weakened Russia as Gorbachev's one helped speed the collapse of the Soviet Union, no its strengthening it and in the mere future Russia will be a strong world power and will matter!