pauliddon blogg

stuff about things

Monday, November 30, 2009

why an end to NATO is a good thing

An interesting proposal was put forward by the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

A future Trans-Atlantic security pact, RT gave an interesting analysis suggesting that this will in turn end NATO once and for all:



If this came through this would mean a new peace of our time breakthrough, one we haven't seen since the fall of the Berlin Wall twenty years ago, however since then Russia and the west haven't exactly had the best chances of being best friends or allies against each other, and the existence of NATO in a post Warsaw Pact world is a sad reminder that the west hasn't taken off it's cold war parachute pants!



From recent times close incidents that could have brought the NATO countries and the Russian Federation close to a war, two notable incidents would be:

* An incident in 1995 where Norwegian scientists in cooperation with NASA launched a two-stage rocket. This caused a Russian nuclear alert since the rocket was launched from an area where Americans subs operated and the missile had the same launch profile as the launch of a Trident SLBM.

Boris Yeltsin had ten minutes to make the decision of whether or not to authorize a nuclear launch, this was a major screw up considering lack of communications and understanding between both parties involved

* There was also the Pristina airfield incident in Kosovo in 1999, where Russian troops occupied the airfield in the wake of the war, NATO-Saceur general Clark ordered British troops to confront them and kick them out. The British commander in charge refused and stated "I am not going to start World War III for you".



The war in South Ossetia in August of 2008 which saw Russia launching an offensive against Georgia cost 2,000 people their lives (mostly Ossetian civilians murdered by the Georgian Army), the background to Georgia's war planning are much more serious considering it was planning to join NATO (Georgia is not near the North Atlantic, neither is Afghanistan but I guess that doesn't matter), it had been supplied with military hardware by 15 countries just before that war!

From NATO countries the Georgian Army received about:

* 300 APC's from the NATO countries
* 100 tanks
* 67 artillery pieces
* 99 mortars
* 150 anti tank systems
* 200 portable anti aircraft units

* The French Air Force had been prepared to deliver four Mirage fighters
* The Americans were to supply 15 Black Hawk helicopters

The Ukraine supplied a further 90 APC's, their extremist leader Yushchenko has been opting to join NATO but has since been vetoed (from more responsible European countries), so has Georgia which is good since NATO isn't aligning itself with fascists!



That being said NATO has gone too far, the arms business does make strange bed partners and the donor countries of these arms can't be blamed for the damage caused, but with extremists in power from former Soviet countries in eastern Europe could lead Russia and Europe into a dangerous hostile situation.

Russia shouldn't be viewed by Europe as a potential threat any more than any European country should be considered a potential threat, the damage caused by the South Ossetian was a failure for the international community and envisioned some horrible hypocrisy on behalf of the west.

The Russian Federation is a country that has had a lot of history in it's short life and was run into the ground after the USSR collapsed, today it matters, not only for military reasons but for it's size and influence in other parts of the world, a Trans-Atlantic security pact stretching from North America, through Europe to the Russian Far East would more than likely be a more positive change* in the long term for the future rather than trying to decide whether or not to let old Soviet republics with bitter extremists align themselves with most of the great military powers of the west, that would certainly be a disaster waiting to happen!

* Russian President Dmitry Medvedev seldom gets credit for promoting real change!

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Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Georgia's Frogfoots



The Soviet made Sukhoi Su-25 is an impressive simple and cheap aircraft, it's closest American counterpart is the deadly A-10 Warthog.

The Su-25 however is much smaller and it's 30mm gun on it while impressive is nothing compared to the Avenger gun on the A-10, but still nonetheless will punch a hole in a tank like it was designed to do, it itself like the A-10 is a flying tank, it's cockpit is well armored being able to withstand direct barrages of hits from 20mm cannon fire!

Along with that it can carry a various amount of bombs and rockets, it really is an in your face kind of plane which is perfect for the soldiers it's supporting on the ground, paired with a pilot with a bit of skill the Su-25 is one deadly opponent to fight against.

Georgia for it's size in the Soviet Union produced a hefty amount of Su-25 Frogfoots, yet following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 they were left with virtually none, around 10 were left in the factory and were bought into service with the Georgian Air Force.



Ten years later in collaboration with Israel eight of these Su-25's were upgraded, avionics were upgraded around the original air frame along with a pinpoint weapon delivery system.
This variant of the Soviet beast is known as Su-25KM.

However in August of 2008 these weren't used against Russian tanks and APC's that entered Georgian territory after pushing them back from South Ossetia where they had attacked, it would have been perfect for the Su-25 to have been deployed, however before that they were used in Georgia's preemptive attack on South Ossetia performing bombing runs, Russia have claimed to have downed three Georgian Su-25's while admitting the Georgians had downed one of theirs, however the circumstances behind this are still unclear.

The development of the Su-25KM with Georgian and Israeli cooperation is an interesting scenario especially in regard with having NATO compatibility, this may be seen in the future with old Soviet aircraft left over behind in former Soviet satellite states that join NATO and may be modernized and used against Russia in the future, especially if somewhere like present days Georgia joined!

* Another throwaway article I guess!

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Monday, August 10, 2009

the military encirclement of Russia.



= pro Western, American troop bases and new members of NATO.

= Iran and Russia.


A whole year has pasted since Georgian forces indiscriminately attacked Russian citizens in South Ossetia leading to a large rapid Russian response which saw men and tanks enter the field in a fairly conventional war, after a short enough exchange Russian forces pulled back after giving the Georgians a sound beating, however this was met by a lot of hypocrisy by the Americans at the time, and later saw an increase of US military presence in several ex USSR countries, many of which are joining NATO an organization that is spreading its influence into the Caucasus.

Imagine a scenario where Georgia (under the same leadership) as a NATO state did exactly what it did last August, that could have resulted in a much larger conflict that could have sparked World War III!

Now I know things aren't as bad as they were in the Cold War but that one spark could have ignited one hell of a fire!

The west shouldn't be spreading their influence militarily in that part of the world anyway!

Iran for example is completely surrounded by American forces on both sides of its border, if a war sparks between Iran and the US it will be very bloody, remember Iran is no broken backed country and a preemptive attack and invasion on a country Russia considers to be an ally would have major consequences, best case scenario would be they would simply close off ties with Europe and the United States and instead open up a better front with China.



Even though nuclear talks are underway Russia (rightfully so) would be more trigger happy on the nuclear button since former allies have joined NATO and its neighboring countries are allowing the United States military to set up bases there which shows a gesture of aggression on behalf of the Americans and Europeans.

Last years sneak attack on South Ossetia was directly perpetrated by Georgia, whether or not this attack was allowed or encouraged by the US I don't know but the present Georgian government did arise from a coup in 2004, something the Iranian government claimed to have been a victim of in this summers election protests.

The Russian reaction in that war did show that they are ready and their military is practical, over 4,000 modern T-72 and T-80 tanks in their inventory and several armored vehicles and an air force large enough to defend the sheer size and depth of it's air space.



Western presence in Eastern Europe is acceptable but acting as the aggressors and threatening to launch preemptive wars far from home is just plain wrong, the presence of Western military men and machines in the Caucasus right under Russia's nose is just unacceptable!

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Friday, June 26, 2009

how powerful is Russia?

Russia had a brutal history during the Second World War, with most of its earth scorched and two thirds of its industry completely destroyed, and as if this wasn't bad enough it had to live in fear from the military alliance built up from the west to counter Moscow, it was in late 1991 that the days of the Cold War came to an end, the USSR collapsed after holding together 39,000 nuclear weapons and the massive Red Army, it all came tumbling down, Mikhail Gorbachev who had now offered reform was gone and the first president of the Russian Federation was a drunk.



Russia then ended up bogged down in a long war in Chechnya devoting 70,000 soldiers as well as support equipment and lost 5,000 in the process in the long and painful struggle which saw rebels producing cheap Borz sub machine guns in their dirty war against the Russian forces, the bombing of Grozny at the start of the war continually for three weeks by the Russian Air Force killed 27,000 civilians, mostly ethnic Russians.

Yelstin had made the Russian military look weak and careless and old fashioned, as it was during the 1990's, the once proud navy was reduced to tatters and the Russian air force patrolled only its own borders, to America and the rest of the world Russia didn't seem to matter and wasn't taken half as seriously as it should have been.



However Vladamir Putin an ex KGB man became president of Russia in 2000 at the beginning of the 21st century and begun to bring to the country back onto its feet, a second war started in Chechnya and is still be fought in mere skirmishes to this day!

Putin helped the military build itself up properly and in 2007 the Tu-95 Bear was seen in the skies over the North Pole, the South Pacific and even in British air space, Russia was showing itself to be a dominant power for the first time since the Cold War.



But has it changed?

Well it wasn't half as big since the Soviet times but it hasn't changed very much equipment wise, apart from some air force technology demonstrators.

The war last August in Georgia proves my point, the Russians sent in line after line of tanks against their enemy;



That covered by artillery and fighter jet sorties did give the Georgian military a pounding but their weak air defence did manage to down a Tu-22 supersonic bomber!
The Russian tactics seems to be a large force of men and equipment to sweep through an area covered by missiles, a form of warfare much larger on the ground than British or American warfare in the last 60 years!



Russia still has more nuclear weapons left over from the Cold War than the United States, Britain, France and Israel combined, 14,000 or so mostly in storage, however after tensions arose in early 2007, and again during the 2008 war in Georgia I'm sure Russia has a hefty amount of these attached to their many ICBM's.

Putin's reform may not have indefinitely weakened Russia as Gorbachev's one helped speed the collapse of the Soviet Union, no its strengthening it and in the mere future Russia will be a strong world power and will matter!

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Tuesday, June 2, 2009

why can't Russia be our friend?

Russia, well more the former Soviet Union was never part of the renaissance, reformation or the enlightenment, major parts of history for the west, this caused Russia to become more culturally distant from the west since the 17th century.

Its a country that stretches across eleven time zones, has historically adapted to this vulnerability by acquiring buffer territories to provide even greater strategic depth for their defense. This vulnerability has led to numerous invasions by great powers in the past. Napoleon and Hitler all did their worse to the Russians the latter having slaughtered 20,000,000 Soviets, maybe they had a reason to distrust the petty fascist powers that thrived in western Europe at the time.

And what happened after the Soviets defeated Germany? (America and Britain sped up its defeat) an entire defensive military alliance was created to face down the singular power of Moscow.

Thus NATO was formed in its Cold War terms, but it still exists today and is spreading its influence deep into eastern Europe, (former Soviet satellite states), why is this being allowed to happen.



I mean Russia is now a autocracy that is supposed to be allied with the rest of the world (a multi polar world), yet America remains the sole hyper power militarily in a unipolar world and NATO still exists, it is extending around Russia now in the Caucasus backing up Georgia last August when the Georgians attacked South Ossetia!



The gap of relations between Russia and the EU is closing and to Russia this is evidence of hostile unified purpose.

Russia currently has a stockpile of 14,000 nuclear warheads (the US roughly 8,000), how many of these are operational I don't know but its still quite a lot considering the cold war was supposed to be over since 1991!

What the west needs to do to preserve good relations and make Russia an infinite ally is for NATO to shut down, Russia will never invade Europe unless Europe attacks it first as history has shown, and the west has no place in Central Asia or the Caucasus, cause there is nothing more unoriginal then history repeating itself over and over again!

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Friday, May 8, 2009

Happy Victory Day



Yesterday marked Victory Day in Russia which celebrated the Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany on May the 9th 1945.

The very same day that the Europe Union celebrates its unity, isn't that a little coincident that Europe celebrates its victory the same time Europe was blown back the stone age by the British and the Soviets (Nazi occupied Europe that is).

President Medvedev took this opportunity (Russia showing off its military might that is) to hint at Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili not to go on any military adventures, probably hinting at the August War in South Ossetia when Georgian forces begun to slaughter Ossetians.

But the thing is while the west keeps saying its best friends with Russia the truth is that Europe and America still continue to treat Russia as a potential enemy, for instance placing someone pro US like Saakashvili is asking for trouble, and worse still having it join NATO, along with the recent joining of Ukraine.

Former satellite states of the Soviet Union joining NATO that continue to encircle Russia, why does NATO still even have to exist?

Plus Russia has a much better right to celebrate since on this day was when they came out victorious after their land was attacked, destroyed and over 20,000,000 of them murdered in cold blood, yet we still cannot assure this won't happen again!

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Thursday, November 6, 2008

Russian message clear: "Don't fuck with us"



With Bush continuing to piss off the world the new rising Russia has pretty much a simple message to the Kennedy like Obama, that is not to fuck with them, Russia promises to place short-range missiles on Russiaƕs western border if Washington proceeded with its planned missile defense system in Eastern Europe.

The same missile system that the US has been going to build in Poland since 2007 to defend Europe against missile strikes from countries like say Iran.

Oh wait!



That's right back in 2007 when Bush was trying to go to war with Iran over their alleged uses to develop a nuclear bomb (sound familiar?) President Putin who had been Bushes ally in the War on Terror since as far back as late 2001 visited Tehran and shortly after even delivered uranium to Iran, damn that guy rocked, you see it works both ways, if you're part of the Iranian nuclear program you'll need the uranium and if you're part of the Bush Administration it may give you some excuse for launching an offensive against a country that never provoked a war!

Russia even stated they would rather have Obama president and Obama has even stated this on the National Defence Missile System.

"I will cut tens of billions of dollars in wasteful spending. I will cut investments in unproven missile defense systems. I will not weaponize space. I will slow our development of future combat systems."

Now that's someone talking sense for once in the last eight years instead of threatening World War III.


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Sunday, August 31, 2008

Cheney and the term hypocrite



"Recent occurrences in Georgia, beginning with the military invasion by Russia, have been flatly contrary to some of our most deeply held beliefs. Russian forces crossed an internationally recognized border into a sovereign state; fueled and fomented an internal conflict; conducted acts of war without regard for innocent life, killing civilians and causing the displacement of tens of thousands."

Does that not sound just a little bit familiar, this is coming from the same guy who was Vice President when a country (Iraq) which was clearly not a threat to the US, never attacked the US or threatened to attack the US and was a sovereign state then sent 130,000 troops across the world to invade it, does he not know what a hypocrite is?
Georgia was clearly more of a threat to Russia than Iraq could ever have been to the United States and that's fact!

He goes on to state that Russian troops conducted acts of war without regard for civilian life. Obviously he ignored the fact that Bush had targeted residential areas during his shock and awe campaign since the weapons of mass destruction could have been anywhere, they never found any after bombers had laid waste to Baghdad.

As far as conducting acts of war is concerned, could someone point out to Mr. Cheney that the invasion of a sovereign nation is probably the ultimate act of war? Occupying it for years, killing a million of its citizens and terrorizing much of the population for over five years may be business as usual for U.S. foreign policy, but that does not make those actions any less acts of war.

Also he said they had displaced thousands of civilians, (as opposed to the millions displaced in Iraq).
He also added Russia had given them no reason for them no reason for the invasion even though him nor Bush had given any reason for invading Iraq which was five years ago!


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Saturday, August 30, 2008

The role of the media in the South Ossetia War



Remember the 8th of August this year when the news clearly stated that Russia was invading Georgia?
Like literally attacking the vulnerable sovereign state of Georgia for no reason, Russia obviously did this because they were bad and for those few days Iraq and Afghanistan weren't comparable and neither logic.

Apparently because of the Olympic games Georgia's brutal attack on South Ossetia went unreported in the main stream media, but when Russia launched its counter attack deep into Georgia, then it was reported about the attack on South Ossetia and that it was the Georgian president who had lied, but that Russia had taken the incident to invade Georgia like they had always wanted to since 1991.

But that's the problem, it's obviously clear that the Russians simply moved in, cleaned up the hostile areas (since Russia citizens in South Ossetia were under attack), bolstered their defences in South Ossetia and then pulled out of Georgia, yet it's called an international crisis for what Russia did in the counter attack, and suddenly South Ossetia is recognized as an independent state.

I mean serious c'mon!


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