what the Provos were gunning for

In the early 1970's shortly after the Provisional IRA was founded they had big plans, very big plans for seizing back Northern Ireland, after acquiring several new arms from Libya including over 1,000 AK-47's, several MP-5 sub machine guns and a handful of SA-7 portable surface to air missiles along with several American arms (the new AR-18 at the time) the IRA had plans to retake Northern Ireland by force, their taking was to be inspired by the Tet Offensive of the Vietnam War.

The vast plan included attacking and seizing British Army border strong points with the element of surprise, then as the British tried to reoccupy their position with helicopters they would then be downed by the IRA's SA-7's, having to rely on armoured vehicles the IRA would be able to ambush them and cripple them using RPG-7's, they also planned to attack the Royal Navy with 106 mm Cannons mounted on motorboats, while this was going on British embassies on the continent would have been attacked.

This however failed to materialize after they lost the element of surprise after one of their ships importing the arms (the Eksund) was intercepted by Irish and French naval vessels, for these reasons (even though they had enough weaponry) the IRA were forced to abandon any hopes that it would work properly.

Now here's my scenario on a big plan they may have had in the early to mid 1980's.

During the 1980's both Britain and the Republic of Ireland were in recession, the Falkland Islands had been invaded and the UK invaded in war winning them back from Argentina, this was around the same time that Israel invaded South Lebanon to counter the PLO presence there which ultimately locked them in several long years of fighting the newly formed Hezbollah.



The IRA at the same time were doing everything to provoke the British, firing mortars at 10 Downing Street in London and the attack on Brighton Hotel in 1986 showed how close they were to killing the British Prime Minister.

So what if Britain had retaliated like Israel had done in 1982 and set up a large presence in the Republic of Ireland replacing the present Irish government who were unable to successfully destroy the IRA cells in the republic, this would have resulted in British paratroopers probably seizing the big Irish cities like Dublin and Cork and setting up puppet governments there reminiscent to the Soviet War in Afghanistan.

However this would have strengthened the IRA and gave them the fight they were looking for, many Irish were out of work and wouldn't want to appease a British invasion that overtook their government, what you would be looking at is even more joining the IRA and the British fighting an enemy that was everywhere and at the same time nowhere, the British were mad and went on to the IRA's territory and play the game their way!

Although the British had obviously learned that lesson without having to go to war against the republic after seeing what had happened when Israel went into Lebanon, (a war that lasted until 2000 and border skirmishes continue to this day!).



The British government had failed to beat the IRA (the Provos from 1969 to 1997 not the Real IRA that killed two British soldiers last May) militarily but they did politically, because if they had went into the Republic to hit the threat from the heart it would have resulted in as a I said a very bloody war pitting a hefty amount of the Irish public against the British, this would have been foolish and dangerous, (I doubt no British government could have survived) however the British did manage to beat them politically and to this day we have peace in the north of Ireland.

And the current Real IRA are mostly just petty criminals and drug dealers who are attempting to break the peace process in the north, they are however deeply condemned by the people of Ireland and the people of England.

* If Britain invaded Ireland like in my scenario the Provos may have been known in history as freedom fighters like Hezbollah was!